ACCU Market Monthly Report - September 2025

ACCU market overview for September 2025

• The ACCU market extended its upward momentum in September, closing the month at $37.30 for both Generic and No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) spot certificates. Trade volumes totalled 3.53 million units across spot, forward and derivative markets.
• Market activity was heavily influenced by anticipation of Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and the release of the government’s Net Zero Plan.
  
  Early in the month, speculation around the NDC announcement pushed prices into a narrow, elevated range between $37.20 and $37.90. The pre-announcement rally peaked at $38.10 on September 18, the highest since December 2024, before retracing on confirmation of a 62–70% reduction target.

• The federal government’s policy announcements reaffirmed the central role of the Safeguard Mechanism in meeting national targets, with the Clean Energy Regulator highlighting that most ACCU supply to 2030 will be sourced from projects already operational or in development.  
• Looking forward, market attention will shift to the practical implementation of the 2035 NDC, the scheduled 2026–27 review of the Safeguard Mechanism, and the finalisation of new ACCU methodologies.  
• Participants are expected to recalibrate procurement strategies in light of evolving policy settings, rising compliance obligations, and shifting supply-demand dynamics.

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Method-specific ACCU price movements and volumes traded

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ACCU price

• September price action reflected strong directional movement around the NDC announcement. A speculative surge pushed spot prices above the $38.00 resistance on September 18, but momentum faded quickly as the target range was seen as largely priced-in.  
• The market retraced to $37.05 the following day, a $0.85 drop, before touching its monthly low of $36.70 between September 19–22. Recovery in the latter part of the month saw the market close $0.40 higher month-on-month at $37.30. Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) certificates mirrored the Generic-No AD trajectory, maintaining modest premiums while trading less frequently.
• September’s Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) market saw thin liquidity, albeit with parcels reported mid-month at a -$0.25 differential to Generic spot ACCUs, compared to -$0.40 the month prior. The narrower spread highlighted continued price discovery in this emerging market, though activity remains soft.  
• Environmental Plantings (EP) and Savanna Fire Management (SFM) parcels were also reported in the month, in-line with CORE Markets’ price assessments at $54.00 and $37.10 (the concurrent Generic spot price) respectively.
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ACCU volumes traded

• Trading volumes were steady against long-term averages. A combined 3.53 million ACCUs were exchanged across spot, forward, and derivative markets, down from July’s peak (4.20 million) and slightly elevated on the monthly average from January to August.  
• September’s activity included 1.48 million Generic and 1.58 million No AD credits exchanged. HIR activity lifted slightly, accounting for 12% of overall volume (432k) versus a year-to-date monthly average of 9.7%.
• The Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) market remained thinly traded, with 20,000 credits exchanged mid-month across two parcels, while Environmental Plantings and Savanna Fire Management were also reported across the month in trades totalling 8k and 15k respectively.

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ACCU price forecast

To help market participants better model their commercial position, the CORE Markets team has developed a unique method-specific ACCU price forecast.

We believe demand preferences will vary among buyer groups, the costs of developing new ACCUs will vary by methodology and that this will be reflected in the market for the foreseeable future.

The CORE Markets ACCU price forecast is created by our environmental markets advisory team with data from our carbon analytics platform.  

The model is continuously tested and refined with the help of an expert industry working group.

In addition to the base model, the CORE Markets team can provide a full suite of scenario analysis forecasts on a bespoke basis.

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Available exclusively to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers. Learn more

Key insights from the latest forecast are available here.

ACCU demand

ACCU demand trends are considered in detail in our monthly analysis as available to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.

This includes:

• ACCU retirements
• SMC market activity
• Method-specific ACCU demand forecast
• Compliance hedging strategies

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ACCU supply

ACCU issuances

• The Clean Energy Regulator’s (CER) monthly issuance data revealed a softening in certificate generation, totalling approximately 1.26 million new ACCUs issued in the month to August 31st (the latest reporting period), down some 20% on the monthly average for the year-to-date (1.58 million,) and down further still from 2024’s monthly average of around 1.65 million.
• Human-Induced Regeneration ACCUs dominated the month’s generation, comprising 62% (787k) of total issuance, with Avoided Deforestation certificates totalling more than 200k. Coal Mine Waste Gas certificates were also generated in large quantities – 107k – after some time without material issuance. While 60k new Plantation Forestry ACCUs were issued in the month, only 3k Environmental Plantings certificates were generated in September.  
• It remains to be seen how much of the current HIR supply will be replaced by the IFLM method, and how much the cost element of Environmental Plantings projects is acting as a handbrake on establishing new supply.  
• Terra Carbon generated 390k certificates across eight projects, equal to 31% of total issuance, of which 380k were HIRs. Its Tallering Station HIR project generated the single largest volume of ACCUs, totalling 197k in the month, or 11% of total issuance.

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Carbon Abatement Contracts

For commentary on Carbon Abatement Contracts and the projected volumes of ACCUs in the Cost Containment Mechanism, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package - a digital subscription for deep market insights, cutting edge financial and physical data, advanced analytical tools and access to market experts.

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ACCU supply forecast

ACCU supply trends are considered in detail in our monthly analysis as available to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.

This includes:

• ACCU by-method supply forecast  
• Spotlight on the ACCU methodology pipeline

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Stay up-to-date with the ACCU market

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