Global Environmental Markets Update - November 2025

New Zealand carbon market

• November marked one of the most turbulent periods in the history of the New Zealand ETS. NZU prices fell more than 28% across the month after the government announced major reforms to the Climate Change Response Act. These include delinking ETS settings from New Zealand’s Paris-aligned NDC and removing key advisory and procedural roles from the Climate Change Commission. The shift was interpreted as a weakening of long-term climate ambition and a major reduction in policy certainty.
• NZU prices fell sharply through November and only partially recovered after ministerial assurances on the ETS’s alignment with emissions budgets and the 2050 target. Most market participants saw the confidence impact as already embedded in the market. Brokers, analysts, forestry developers and legal experts generally characterised the reforms as a shock event with effects likely to carry through to 2026.
• Concerns centred around reduced long-term visibility of NZU supply, heightened uncertainty for forestry investment, and the potential for future weakening of emissions targets.

For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on international carbon markets, including macro trends, other regional markets, CORSIA and Article 6 markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.

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Singapore market

• November opened with Singapore launching its second request for proposals (RFP) for Article 6 credits, which is to be used to meet the country’s 2030 NDC. This second RFP features an expanded project scope to include technology and nature-based projects (beyond the first RFP’s sole focus on nature), and a lower minimum annual delivery threshold from 500,000 to 25,000 credits.
• Singapore also progressed domestic decarbonisation with approval for Aether Fuels’ Project Beacon, a next-generation SAF demonstration plant that will convert industrial waste gas and biomethane into up to 2,000 tonnes of SAF annually.
• Additionally, Singapore strengthened integrity oversight by appointing BeZero Carbon, Calyx Global, and Sylvera as carbon rating providers under the ICC framework. The firms will assess methodologies and project risks for credits used by compliance entities under the national carbon tax scheme.

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For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on international carbon markets, including macro trends, other regional markets, CORSIA and Article 6 markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.

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Voluntary carbon market

• The voluntary carbon market continued to demonstrate widening divergence between premium, higher-integrity credits and older, low-priced supply. While the VCM was insulated from the acute shocks seen in compliance markets, November data indicated a global market adjusting to heightened integrity expectations and ongoing regulatory reform.
• CORSIA-eligible Dec25 futures on ICE eased over the month, trading at around US18.00. Supply signals were mixed. Gold Standard added to its CORSIA-eligible volumes, while Verra’s YTD retirements exceeded new registrations, continuing a structural tightening trend in the VCS registry.
• Benchmark indicators pointed to a modest, quality-led upwards movement. Legacy renewable-energy units stayed near the bottom of the range, highlighting the quality-driven bifurcation in the voluntary market.
• The Integrity Council for the VCM advanced several nature-based and engineered-removals methodologies to full Core Carbon Principle approval during the quarter, while major standards such as Gold Standard outlined transition pathways for legacy methodologies to align with the Paris Agreement rulebook.
• Though procedural in nature, these updates reinforce expectations that the VCM is entering a period of structurally higher quality and constrained supply, setting the stage for a more selective and credibility-focused market into 2026.

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For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on international carbon markets, including macro trends, other regional markets, CORSIA and Article 6 markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.

CORSIA market

• November saw a flurry of activity around the CORSIA market, kicking off with the release of the 2024 Sectoral Growth Factor (SGF) and updates to unit eligibility by ICAO.
• Published annually by ICAO, the SGF is the key measure for member States to calculate the emissions required to be offset under the CORSIA compliance scheme for their respective aeroplane operators.
• The SGF for 2024 was 0.159 (rounded) with total emissions under the scheme for 2024 coming in at 597 Mt. This marks the first year of CORSIA where the SGF is greater than zero.
• States are now required to calculate and inform individual operators of their emissions liabilities by 30 November 2025.
• On the supply side, after nearly 2 years, issuance from an additional project has been labelled as eligible for surrender under CORSIA.
• Early in November, Gold Standard labelled ~1.5 million clean cookstove credits from Hestian’s Biomass Energy Conservation Programme in Malawi (GS11677) as eligible under Phase 1.
• These join ~16 million ART TREES credits issued to the Guyana jurisdictional REDD+ project in early 2024, although 30% of this issuance is secured in an offtake agreement between Guyana and Hess corporation, with at least an additional 2.3 million credits sold or allocated through IATA procurement events to date leaving only a potential ~9 million credits currently available.

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For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on international carbon markets, including macro trends, other regional markets, CORSIA and Article 6 markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.

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Australia biodiversity market

• November saw the Senate finally pass the package of seven Bills to implement the most significant reform of the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (Cth) (EPBC Act) since its inception. The Bills give effect to much of the 2020 Samuel Review and will progressively commence from 2026.
• The National Environmental Protection Agency Act 2025 (NEPA Act) and Environment Information Australia Act 2025 will come into effect on 1 July 2026. This will establish the functions of the centralised agency.
• The draft Act did not mention any alignment towards climate risk and emissions reporting. There were also no limitations to the type of projects that can apply for the 30-day fast-track assessment pathway, with concerns raised over the potential use of the “national interest” rights for fossil fuel projects.
• However, at the eleventh hour, the Albanese Government struck a deal with the Greens to secure passage in the Senate, by proposing an amendment to exclude fossil fuel projects from being eligible for declaration as a “national interest project”.

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For monthly deep dives on Australian and global biodiversity markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel credits

• As observed in the Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance SAFc registry, 4.483 tonnes of SAF linked to credits were retired in November, representing a 68% MoM decrease from October. Retirement of SAF credits (primarily produced in the US) led to 14,594 tonnes of CO2 abated this month, 66% lower than recorded in October.
• Consistent with previous months, Southwest Airlines retired the largest volume of SAF credits during the reporting period, totalling 3,864 MT and representing 86% of the overall amount. General Electric Aerospace followed with 288 MT, accounting for 6%.
• All credits were generated using Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) methodologies, and almost all the retired credits were used to offset Scope 1 emissions abatement, with the proportion claimed for Scope 3 increasing from 6% to 7% in November.

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For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on international carbon markets, including macro trends, other regional markets, CORSIA and Article 6 markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.

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Do you need help navigating the evolving market conditions?

The events outlined in this month’s update highlight the evolving nature of global carbon and environmental markets and the complexity of the net zero transition.

To discuss your unique requirements, get in touch with our team today to explore how we can help.

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