ACCU Market Monthly Report - November 2025

ACCU market overview for November 2025

• The ACCU market softened through November, with generic spot prices easing into the $36 to $38 range as broader sentiment weakened in response to both domestic compliance season dynamics and external shocks from the New Zealand ETS.
• Prices dipped as low as A$35.75 mid-month, with traders citing the collapse in NZU prices and the federal Liberal Party’s renunciation of net-zero as contributing to downward pressure.
• Daily traded volumes on 13 November surged to their highest levels in months, with more than 770,000 ACCUs exchanged across spot, forward and derivative markets, as compliance buying persisted across the month.
• Market commentary from traders and intermediaries continued to reinforce the shift in purchasing strategy observed since July, with compliance entities procuring ACCUs more gradually and evenly through the year. This has helped moderate the steep pre-deadline price spikes characteristic of 2023–24 and contributed to November’s liquidity.
• The Clean Energy Regulator’s projections of baseline exceedance under the reformed Safeguard Mechanism, released late in the month, climbed ~50% year-on-year to 13.7 MtCO2e across 143 facilities. Meanwhile, potential SMC issuance fell materially to roughly 7 million units. The widening projected exceedance reinforces expectations of sustained ACCU demand into 2026 and beyond.

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Method-specific ACCU price movements and volumes traded

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ACCU price

• Spot Generic and No AD ACCUs traded within a $2.90 band in the month, far wider than the $1.25 differential between the highest and lowest prices printed in October, which is clearer evidence of the increased price action across November.
• Starting at $38.50 on the 3rd, the monthly high was reached early  ($38.65 on the 4th), before a period of intense market activity – spurred specifically by the Liberal Party’s axing of Net Zero support – drove spot prices to a low of $36.00 on the 13th.
• Prices recovered somewhat across the back half of November, though quieter activity levels saw muted price action, hovering below the $37.00 level.
• Trading at $36.50, late-month activity saw spot Generic and No AD prices pushed down to $35.75 to close the market.
• As in recent months, the Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) spot market traded with less frequency by comparison but traded level with the Generic and No AD spot.

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ACCU volumes traded

• Inverse to the trend seen in 2024, overall market activity has softened for the fifth consecutive month, with November’s 3.05 million marginally down (~90k) on the month prior, and down 1.15 million (27%) on July’s peak.
• As in recent months, No AD trading greatly outweighed other methodologies, comprising some 59% of total activity, though an uptick in trades of premium methodology-specific parcels saw 60k of Savanna Fire Management units exchanged across two trades, alongside one 5k Plantation Forestry parcel.
• The over-the-counter Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) market also observed an increase in activity, with 210k exchanged across six parcels, more than double the monthly average since February.

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ACCU price forecast

To help market participants better model their commercial position, the CORE Markets team has developed a unique method-specific ACCU price forecast.

We believe demand preferences will vary among buyer groups, the costs of developing new ACCUs will vary by methodology and that this will be reflected in the market for the foreseeable future.

The CORE Markets ACCU price forecast is created by our environmental markets advisory team with data from our carbon analytics platform.  

The model is continuously tested and refined with the help of an expert industry working group.

In addition to the base model, the CORE Markets team can provide a full suite of scenario analysis forecasts on a bespoke basis.

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Key insights from the latest forecast are available here.

ACCU demand

ACCU demand trends are considered in detail in our monthly analysis as available to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.

This includes:

• ACCU retirements
• SMC market activity
• Method-specific ACCU demand forecast
• Compliance hedging strategies

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ACCU supply

ACCU issuances

• Issuances for the month of October, the most recent reporting period, totaled 2.55 million across various methodologies.
• The month’s elevated figures featured healthy HIR generation (767k) from more than forty projects, with Regenco’s SA Cattle Conservation project generating more than 180k alone.
• A further 620k Landfill Gas certificates were generated in the month across nine projects, with EDL’s Lucas Heights projects issued a combined 515k.
• Additionally, 614k Carbon Capture and Storage ACCUs were issued in the month by Santos and Beach Energy’s Moomba CCS project – the single highest monthly issuance for any project in the history of the scheme.

Carbon Abatement Contracts

For commentary on Carbon Abatement Contracts and the projected volumes of ACCUs in the Cost Containment Mechanism, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package - a digital subscription for deep market insights, cutting edge financial and physical data, advanced analytical tools and access to market experts.

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ACCU supply forecast

ACCU supply trends are considered in detail in our monthly analysis as available to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.

This includes:

• ACCU by-method supply forecast  
• Spotlight on the ACCU methodology pipeline

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Learn more about the Carbon Intelligence Package

Stay up-to-date with the ACCU market

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