ACCU Market Monthly Report - April 2025

ACCU market overview for April 2025

• Dominated by developments in the federal election campaign and updates on Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) issuances, the Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) market saw mid-month volatility. However, a bullish sentiment ultimately prevailed driving prices higher ($35.05 for Generic spots at April’s close, $2.05 higher month-on-month) for the first time since late last year.
• The Clean Energy Regulator (CER) released the data behind the first SMC issuance mid-month, giving observers their first detailed insights into the new compliance market. Shell’s Prelude FLNG Facility was the single largest recipient of SMCs with 1.078 million credits received, with the Bowen Basin’s Capcoal Mine (Anglo American and Mitsui Resources) in second, receiving 1.023 million credits.
• Though the volume of issuance was known earlier, the data revealed that coal entities comprised a substantial portion of the total, and that a quarter of the more-than 8 million SMCs were issued to facilities run by Shell and Anglo American.
• The market’s response to the release contributed to softer prices mid-month. Generic spots dropped $1.25 to $33.25 on the 15th as participants considered future changes to supply-demand dynamics.
• Regarding the election, the Coalition’s position on carbon markets was not detailed, except for a Liberal source stating that their gas strategy would “benefit from a relaxation of the Safeguard Mechanism.”  This was significant as the opposition’s polling performance improved, with the few Coalition signals being interpreted by markets with a bearish sentiment.
• However, as polling improved for Labor in the final weeks of the campaign, the ACCU market responded with bullish price action reaching a monthly high of $35.00 (Generic spot) at April’s close, its highest level since February. The upward price action also signified the first month-on-month growth in five months, since the market’s peak in November.
• Following the resounding Labor victory on May 3rd, participants look to the months ahead with greater policy certainty. You can read more on what Labor’s election victory means for carbon and energy markets here.

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Method-specific ACCU price movements and volumes traded

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ACCU price

• Across the month, the most liquid ACCU markets saw price growth to reach levels not seen since February.
• Generic, No Avoided Deforestation (No AD), and Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) spot ACCUs all strengthened over April, with Generic spot ACCUs strengthening $1.65 across the month to close at $35.00.
• The HIR and No AD spot markets saw a similar profile over April, opening at $33.50 and closing at $35.00 and $35.05 respectively.
• The SMC market was quieter in April, with one $33.00 spot parcel exchanged late-month at a discount of $1.90 to the Generic closing price that day.
• Other methodology trades of note include one Plantation Forestry parcel exchanged at $35.00 in early April, and an Environmental Plantings parcel reported at $54.00 mid-month.

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ACCU volumes traded

• As in recent months, No AD spot ACCUs were traded in greater volumes than Generic and HIR spots, totalling more than 1.4 million units exchanged across the month, compared to 560k (Generics) and 337k (HIRs).
• In a continuation of recent trends, however, Generic volumes were bolstered by derivatives trading, with nearly 1.1 million Generics exchanged in options across April.
• The sign of a maturing market, optionality has trended upwards since CORE Markets traded the first ACCU option in 2022, though this has appeared to swallow the oxygen of forwards markets, with no forwards reported across April.

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ACCU price forecast

To help market participants better model their commercial position, the CORE Markets team has developed a unique method-specific ACCU price forecast.

We believe demand preferences will vary among buyer groups, the costs of developing new ACCUs will vary by methodology and that this will be reflected in the market for the foreseeable future.

The CORE Markets ACCU price forecast is created by our environmental markets advisory team with data from our carbon analytics platform.  

The model is continuously tested and refined with the help of an expert industry working group.

In addition to the base model, the CORE Markets team can provide a full suite of scenario analysis forecasts on a bespoke basis.

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ACCU demand

ACCU demand trends are considered in detail in our monthly analysis as available to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.

This includes:

• ACCU retirements
• SMC market activity
• Method-specific ACCU demand forecast
• Compliance hedging strategies

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ACCU supply

ACCU issuances

• Quarterly ACCU data released by the CER revealed that issuance contracted in Q1-25 to 3.4 million, down from Q4-24’s total of 6.17 million. While 89 new projects were registered in Q1 – virtually unchanged from the previous quarter – participants remain concerned that this stability masks a brewing supply crunch, as key ACCU methodologies are due to expire, and replacements are not being rolled out fast enough to sustain future issuance.
• Various factors may have influenced the softer generation figures, including the seasonal holiday slump, the discontinuation of new HIR project registrations, and the delay in the rollout of its replacement, the highly anticipated Integrated Farm and Land Management (IFLM) method.
• Vegetation projects remained the cornerstone of supply in Q1, accounting for 2.4 million of the total issuance, but this was outweighed by a spike in cancellations driven by Safeguard Mechanism entities surrendering 6.4 million units for compliance, contributing to a significant 3.9 million unit drop in overall ACCU holdings across the market.
• Turning to the monthly issuance figures, some 966k ACCUs were issued in the month to March 31st, with HIR units comprising lion’s share (608k). Of all ACCU proponents to receive inventory in the month, Terra Carbon generated the greatest quantity with 98k HIR and AD units issued across nine projects. The Heffernan Forest Regeneration Project (HIR) received the largest parcel of any individual project, totalling more than 91k ACCUs. The Consolidated Pastoral Company’s Beef Herd Project bolstered the sunsetted methodology’s total issuance with 88k units generated in the month.

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Carbon Abatement Contracts

For commentary on Carbon Abatement Contracts and the projected volumes of ACCUs in the Cost Containment Mechanism, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package - a digital subscription for deep market insights, cutting edge financial and physical data, advanced analytical tools and access to market experts.

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ACCU supply forecast

ACCU supply trends are considered in detail in our monthly analysis as available to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.

This includes:

• ACCU by-method supply forecast  
• Spotlight on the ACCU methodology pipeline

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Learn more about the Carbon Intelligence Package

Stay up-to-date with the ACCU market

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