This report is published monthly and provides a high-level overview of the key developments in select compliance and voluntary carbon and biodiversity markets.
This report is published monthly and provides a high-level overview of the key developments in select compliance and voluntary carbon, biodiversity and Sustainable Aviation Fuel markets.
*Please note: This report is produced using select data, commentary and insights as available in full to our Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.
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March saw heightened activity in the ACCU market as an evolving political landscape, compliance buying, and increased SMC issuance drove volumes to 3.69 million units, with prices softening month-on-month once again. With the federal election fast-approaching, market sensitivity remained high, particularly after mid-month, when softening prices and rhetoric around potential Safeguard Mechanism changes triggered a shift in sentiment.
Spot prices fell through March. Generics opened at $34.00, briefly rising with No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) units to A$34.50, before dropping to lows around A$32.75. A modest recovery followed, with Generics closing at A$32.50 and No AD and Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) units finishing at A$33.00 and A$33.25 respectively. Pricing pressure was driven by stronger-than-expected February SMC issuance and narrowing election polling.
SMC trading gained momentum, with CORE Markets broking the first parcel at A$34.00—roughly A$0.70 below Generic ACCUs—in late February. While demand slowed ahead of the 31 March compliance deadline, forward interest emerged, and SMCs are expected to continue trading at a discount.
Volumes remained strong, well above the 2024 monthly average of 2.33 million, supported by compliance activity and bolstered by derivatives trading. Much of the month’s options activity conveyed a bullish sentiment, with 1 million units exchanged above the concurrent level. Generic units dominated, comprising 41% of all market activity when including options.
Issuance also lifted, with 1.24 million ACCUs generated across 86 projects. HIR led supply at 623k (50.1%), followed by 444k from Avoided Deforestation. Smaller volumes came from Alternative Waste, Landfill Gas, and Beef Cattle Herd Management. Terra Carbon led issuance with 304k units.
Regulatory signals added to caution. A proposed NGER amendment would require open-cut coal mines to shift to company-level methane reporting by 2025, casting doubt on future SMC integrity. With the election outcome looming, market participants remain alert to policy risk.
Despite near-term price softness, interest in mid- and long-dated call options suggests traders anticipate post-election recovery. The coming weeks will be pivotal in shaping the market’s next phase.
For a comprehensive update on the ACCU market, read our monthly ACCU Market Monthly Report
Learn more about our ACCU Market Forecast Report, a method-specific ACCU market supply, demand and price forecast
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March saw substantially greater price action and further price drops in the New Zealand Unit (NZU) market, shaped by supressed compliance buying and compounded by increased seller flow, particularly from foresters.
The month opened with spot NZUs priced at NZ$63.00, before softening to NZ$61.50 on the 6th, then $60.00 on the 14th. Downward price action early in the month was attributed to emitters who had broadly satisfied their compliance buying, in combination with increased selling pressure from foresters, looking to liquidate volume amidst poorer economic conditions.
Mid-March brought the NZ ETS quarterly auction into focus. Traders anticipated challenges ahead, particularly given that spot prices were considerably below the auction price floor of NZ$68.00. The year’s first auction failed to clear, with the 1.5mil units on offer now rolled on to Q2’s volume, now totalling 3mil units.
Following the Q1 auction, prices softened to their lowest levels since mid-August 2024, as the spot market dropped to a low of NZ$54.25 on the 25th. Liquidity was thin as prices softened, with the bid-offer spread widening to NZ$2.25. Prices recovered somewhat in time to close the month, trading at the NZ$57.40 level.
Late in the month, the New Zealand Forest Service flagged changes to forestry-sector ETS restrictions, with the intent of preserving productive agricultural land. The changes, which impose greater restrictions on new forestry projects, may serve to limit future ETS supply from forestry sources, and may contribute to impending supply shortfalls.
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Singapore signed three Article 6 Implementation Agreements (IA) in March and April. This adds Bhutan, Peru and Chile to the list of countries from which international credits can be sourced to meet Singapore carbon tax obligations, alongside Papua New Guinea and Ghana. The list of eligible project types for Bhutan and Peru specifically has not yet been disclosed but is likely to align with those included in Singapore’s existing agreements. Currently, only active methodologies published before 31 March 2023 are eligible, with the most widely accepted project methodologies falling under the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU), energy demand, and waste handling and disposal sectoral scopes.
The Singapore government has not specified the exact volume of ITMOs it will procure or has already procured for its NDC, however, it has committed to purchasing at least 30% of the ITMOs authorised under its IAs, although the total quantum covered under the IAs is undisclosed. The remainder of the credits will likely be available for purchase by Singaporean companies for use towards carbon tax obligations.
To further support its ITMO procurement, the Singapore government also announced in March its plan to launch a Request for Proposals (RFP) later in 2025 to acquire ITMOs. This follows the closure of a separate RFP in February for credits from nature-based projects, in which 17 proponents made offers totalling almost US$1 billion.
For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on the Australian and international carbon markets, including macro trends, CORSIA and Article 6 markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
Voluntary carbon markets traded broadly sideways across March, as issuances and retirements ramped up against softer figures in January and February. Following consecutive issuance deficits in the opening months of the year, markets were buoyed going into the month.
March, however, followed last year’s trend with an issuance surplus, totalling an aggregated 15 million units across the five largest voluntary registries. Gold Standard (GS) ramped issuances across the month, with some 3.6 million units generated in the week to 21 March, while retirements moderately outpaced issuance in the Verra markets, tightening supply there.
The Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) 1477 Katingan project saw movement across the month, but despite uniform price action across different vintages, managed to maintain its earlier gains made in February. Vintages 2022, up from US$5.40 in early January, closed the month at US$6.70, with similar gains in other vintages.
India Solar projects for Verra and GS softened and contracted once again across the month, with the v23 GS India Solar units closing US$0.70 lower, trading at just US$0.56. Where v23 units fetched a premium over the v16s of US$0.76 on 1 January, the spread contracted 57% to just US$0.32 on 31 March. Market profiles were similar for VCS and GS renewables (GS v23 down US$0.72 to US$0.95 at month’s end), VCS Southern Cardamon contracting from a US$0.28 spread between v22 and v16 markets on 1 March to US$0.09 at month’s end.
For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on the voluntary carbon market, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
After a period of uncertainty, Australia’s first Nature Repair Market (NRM) methodology, replanting native forest and woodland ecosystems methodology, was approved in March. This method aims to boost and safeguard biodiversity among native species by revegetating land on Australia’s productive and historically cleared land and/or replanting local native vegetation and supporting ecological connectivity. This news gives project developers a greater level of certainty when conducting pre-assessments to develop new projects. This includes developers of existing reforestation or afforestation ACCU projects who have been looking to generate additional revenue streams.
Further to the above, the Federal Budget announcement included an additional A$250 million to support projects under the NRM. This investment is to be allocated towards the Saving Australia’s Bushland Program, a new initiative to protect native habitats and ecosystems conservation over the next 5 years.
The ongoing challenge for the NRM remains in the lack of demand for nature credits, and lack of policy and regulatory drivers to drive this demand signal.
To date, 25 Australian companies have voluntarily adopted the Taskforce for Nature-related Disclosures (TNFD) standard to disclose their footprint on nature through financial reports, including Qantas, Telstra, and Energy Australia.
Separately, Fortescue is looking to start its nature accounting journey by piloting the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s (IUCN) Standard for the Assessment of Risk methodology against its mining business. This strategic collaboration will not only establish Fortescue as a sectoral leader in biodiversity management, but also help IUCN, the world’s largest environmental network, to create a nature roadmap for this industry.
For monthly deep dives on Australian and global biodiversity markets , including the interplays with carbon markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
According to the latest SAF credits registry data, just over 148 tonnes of SAF linked to credits were retired in March 2025—all within the US. This marks a sharp decline from 6,238 tonnes retired in February. The March retirements abated 482 tCO₂e, with the underlying SAF achieving an average emissions reduction of 82.05% compared to conventional jet fuel.
Half of the associated credits retired were used for the purpose of Scope 1 abatement, with almost 80% for direct aviation-related emissions. The remaining half were used for other indirect aviation-related emissions. All these credits were developed using either (Hydro processed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) or co-processed HEFA methodologies.
For monthly deep dives on Australian and global SAF uptake, including how it interplays with carbon markets, explore our CORE Markets Carbon Intelligence Package
The events outlined in this month’s update highlight the evolving nature of global carbon and environmental markets and the complexity of the net zero transition.
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Global Environmental Markets Report - March 2025
BESS offtake agreements play a critical role in securing stable revenue streams, mitigating market risks, and underpinning the financial stability of projects. If you're involved in the development, procurement, or management of renewable energy and BESS projects, this article is for you. It provides a deep dive into the nuances of offtake agreements and offers insights to help guide decision making.
