ACCU Market Monthly Report - June 2025

ACCU market overview for June 2025

• Market sentiment in the ACCU market remained mixed in June, influenced by ongoing policy developments and updates to forthcoming methodologies. While overall volumes eased slightly in line with seasonal patterns and the typical year-end slowdown, the month's activity still surpassed volumes reached in June of 2024.
• Though activity was softer than in recent months, the increased trade volumes year-on-year reflects the broader impact of the reformed Safeguard Mechanism. Forward transactions continued to clear at a premium, suggesting participants were positioning around anticipated federal commitments and forthcoming methodology updates.
• Generic spot ACCUs closed slightly higher month-on-month, gaining $0.10 to $35.50 with a trade on the 24th, after reaching the monthly high of $36.00 on the 13th, the highest level in five months. No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) spot ACCUs ultimately closed $0.05 lower at $35.45 with a parcel exchanged on the 30th. Trading activity remained subdued as the end of FY24–25 approached, though aggregate spot, forward and derivative markets recorded volumes 25% higher than June 2024. Market sentiment remains cautious in the post-election period and ahead of the usual compliance-driven uptick, while the increased activity year-on-year reflects the broader impact of the reformed Safeguard Mechanism.
• Various announcements relating to forthcoming methodologies and Australia’s 2035 emissions target converged in June, prompting market participants to reassess forward supply-demand dynamics. The release of a draft landfill gas method — including a proposed 12-year crediting extension for eligible legacy projects — introduced the potential for a material increase in supply over the decade ahead. At the same time, indications of a more ambitious 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), targeting emissions reductions of 65–75% below 2005 levels, reinforced expectations of progressively tighter baselines under the Safeguard Mechanism.
• Forward market activity responded accordingly, with traded volumes doubling in June to 560,000 units. Parcels were exchanged across a wide range of tenors, from July 2025 through to November 2026, with all trades executed at premiums to prevailing spot levels — suggesting a recalibration of pricing expectations in light of evolving policy settings.
• In other developments, the Australian government launched a new modelling tool — SavCAM — to support more consistent accounting under two upcoming Savanna Fire Management methods. Designed to quantify abatement from early dry season burning, it is slated to replace the existing SavBAT tool. While new method approvals remain slow, savanna burning continues to deliver material abatement, and project developers have welcomed the improved technical infrastructure.
• Looking ahead, market attention will shift toward the submission of Australia’s 2035 NDC by September and the 2026-2027 review of the Safeguard Mechanism. Both are expected to influence future baseline decline rates, market design, and the potential for linking with international units. In the interim, participants are being urged to adapt procurement strategies in response to rising compliance costs and tightening supply forecasts.

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Method-specific ACCU price movements and volumes traded

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ACCU price

• Across the most commonly traded products, increased price action on the 10th saw brief spikes to $36.00 for Generic and No AD spot ACCUs, before returning to earlier levels. Meanwhile, HIR spot ACCUs reached $35.95, before settling at the $35.75 mark at month’s end.
• For the third consecutive month, the pure Generic spot ACCU prices rose on a month-on-month basis, despite subdued activity. However, while no pure Generic spot parcels traded after the 24th, the No AD spot traded continuously until the 30th, drifting slightly lower in the final days of June and ultimately closing the month marginally down at $35.45.
• Several derivatives trades were printed in June, with put options struck between $32.00 and $35.00 and call options around $38.00. This range reflects mixed sentiment, with participants hedging both downside risks and potential upside in the wake of ongoing policy developments.
• SMC activity softened in June, with one parcel reported late in the month at $35.00. This placed the SMC–Generic ACCU spread at approximately –$0.40 relative to the then spot price. Compared to a –$1.50 differential in February, the June trade suggests ongoing price discovery in this still-nascent market.

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ACCU volumes traded

• Traded volumes across spot, forward and derivative markets eased in June, totalling 2.25 million units — down 5% on May’s total. While activity remains well below the pre-compliance peak of November 2024, volumes were some 38% higher than June 2024, reflecting stronger year-on-year momentum after adjusting for seasonal patterns.
• Though down 100,000 units from May, derivatives trading in June totalled a healthy 600,000. Forwards trading, too, remained elevated in June, with 560,000 – double May’s forwards activity –exchanged with tenors across the back-half of the year, exchanged above the then-current spot levels.
• Following the trend of recent months, No AD ACCUs comprised the majority (58%) of market activity across spot, forward and options trading. Following a quiet May, HIRs comprised 11% of total market activity in June, up 3% on the month prior, while pure Generic volumes were down by 4% to 31% in June.

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ACCU price forecast

To help market participants better model their commercial position, the CORE Markets team has developed a unique method-specific ACCU price forecast.

We believe demand preferences will vary among buyer groups, the costs of developing new ACCUs will vary by methodology and that this will be reflected in the market for the foreseeable future.

The CORE Markets ACCU price forecast is created by our environmental markets advisory team with data from our carbon analytics platform.  

The model is continuously tested and refined with the help of an expert industry working group.

In addition to the base model, the CORE Markets team can provide a full suite of scenario analysis forecasts on a bespoke basis.

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ACCU demand

ACCU demand trends are considered in detail in our monthly analysis as available to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.

This includes:

• ACCU retirements
• SMC market activity
• Method-specific ACCU demand forecast
• Compliance hedging strategies

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Learn more about the Carbon Intelligence Package

ACCU supply

ACCU issuances

• Some 2.12 million units were issued in the latest reporting period, according to the latest data from the Clean Energy Regulator (CER). May issuance edged 6.7% higher than April’s total, continuing the upward trend observed since March. Even so, volumes remain well below the 4 million units issued in December 2024.
• Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) and Landfill Gas (LFG) units dominated the generation, with 779,000 and 549,000 issued respectively. Avoided Deforestation also issued in large volumes (354,000). Following quiet months in March and April, 170,000 units were generated by proponents using environmental plantings and plantation forestry methods.
• LMS Energy generated the greatest volume in the month, with 330k ACCUs issued across 16 projects. Terra Carbon also featured, with 315k units issued across 25 projects, one of which – the Catchment Conservation Alliance (Great Barrier Reef Initiative Site # 22) – the recipient of the single largest parcel, equalling 87,000. Close behind was the Heffernan Regeneration Project, generating 84,000 new ACCUs.
• New activity was also recorded on the registration front, with 44 new projects added and 4 revoked. Agriprove Solutions registered 17 new soil carbon projects, while 8 new environmental plantings projects and 6 plantation forestry projects were registered with the CER.
• Carbon Abatement Contract deliveries remained light, with just 38,882 ACCUs transferred to the government. More than half (22,500) came from Norske Skog’s Boyer Mill Heat Recovery Project, which has now delivered 134,000 of its 250,000-unit commitment, with a further 53,000 released through exit arrangements.

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Carbon Abatement Contracts

For commentary on Carbon Abatement Contracts and the projected volumes of ACCUs in the Cost Containment Mechanism, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package - a digital subscription for deep market insights, cutting edge financial and physical data, advanced analytical tools and access to market experts.

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ACCU supply forecast

ACCU supply trends are considered in detail in our monthly analysis as available to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.

This includes:

• ACCU by-method supply forecast  
• Spotlight on the ACCU methodology pipeline

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Learn more about the Carbon Intelligence Package

Stay up-to-date with the ACCU market

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