This report is published monthly and provides a high-level overview of the key developments in select compliance and voluntary carbon, and Sustainable Aviation Fuel markets.
This report is published monthly and provides a high-level overview of the key developments in select compliance and voluntary carbon, and Sustainable Aviation Fuel markets.
*Please note: This report is produced using select data, commentary and insights as available in full to our Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.
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ACCU spot prices extended their recent upward trend in October, with sustained strength above the A$38.00 mark. Generic spot ACCUs closed the month A$1.10 higher at A$38.40 - the first breach of this level since December 2024. Gains were supported by ongoing Safeguard compliance demand and growing expectations of tighter supply linked to Australia’s sharpened 2035 emissions reduction target.
Trading activity softened across spot, forward, and derivative markets. Total reported volumes fell to 3.13 million ACCUs and SMCs, down 11% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year. Signalling sustained compliance buying, spot turnover remained resilient in the month of October, led by Generic and No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) parcels (518k and 1.05mln, respectively), while Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) volumes held steady at 350k. Derivatives trading eased from mid-year highs as optionality demand tapered following July’s surge.
CORE Markets noted a shift in compliance buying behaviour in FY2025, with liable entities spreading procurement more evenly across the compliance year. This trend has reduced the sharp pre-deadline peaks seen in prior years, sustaining steadier trading through the middle months of the period – a trend reflected in the year’s price action.
Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) activity remained subdued, with just two parcels changing hands - a 5,000-unit trade at a A$0.75 discount to Generic ACCUs and a 10,000-unit clip at a A$0.50 discount. OTC discussions suggest off-screen interest persists as participants monitor early market signals ahead of the next compliance cutoff.
Issuance in the month to 30 September, the latest reporting period, totalled 2.65 million ACCUs. LMS Energy led with 856,000 certificates, including 170,000 from its Wollert Landfill Gas Project. Terra Carbon followed with 460,000 and AI Carbon’s Meka Station HIR project added 154,000.
On the policy front, the Climate Change Authority launched its fifth statutory review of the ACCU Scheme on 20 October, open for consultation until 8 December. The review will assess method development, supply integrity, and investment signals under the reformed Safeguard Mechanism - with the Authority’s final report due in 2026.
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For a comprehensive update on the ACCU market, read our monthly ACCU Market Monthly Report
Learn more about our ACCU Market Forecast Report, a method-specific ACCU market supply, demand and price forecast. This ACCU supply, demand and price forecast is available to subscribers to the Carbon Intelligence Package.
New Zealand Unit (NZU) prices held within a narrow band through October, stabilising after recent softness and reflecting a market waiting on further government direction ahead of the next Climate Change Commission advice. Spot NZUs opened the month with trades at the NZ$57.10 level, the monthly high, with bidirectional price action across most of October.
Market proponents digested the government’s updated emissions projections and ongoing consultation on the NZ ETS reform package, which includes potential changes to auction volumes and price-control settings. Analysts noted that investor caution persists amid uncertainty over unit supply in 2026 and beyond, with secondary liquidity light but steady.
Trading was concentrated among compliance buyers seeking to smooth procurement ahead of year-end surrender requirements. Intermediaries reported growing interest in structured positions ahead of the December auction, though activity remained far below pre-2024 levels.
Following trades at NZ$54.90 on the 27th, the market declined sharply to the monthly low of NZ$52.65 (29th), before closing at NZ$52.74. Participants noted a sharp uptick in market activity late in the month, as liable entities maintained healthy reserves of allowances in their holdings, in combination with sustained seller flow.
Proponents noted the market’s direction of travel was potentially attributable to the signals received from the New Zealand government, looking to put climate ambition on the backburner ahead of the impending national election – an observation which would be proven correct in the early days of November when the government announced a decoupling of NZ ETS control regulations from the country’s Nationally Determined Contribution, leading to further price drops.
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For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on international carbon markets, including macro trends, other regional markets, CORSIA and Article 6 markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
Singapore’s carbon market advanced on multiple fronts this month, reinforcing its role as Asia’s Article 6 hub. The government urged the European Commission to recognise UN-authorised Article 6 credits as a carbon price paid under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), arguing this would prevent double taxation for exporters that already offset up to 5 percent of their carbon-tax liability with such credits.
Regionally, Singapore signed its tenth bilateral Article 6.2 Implementation Agreement with Mongolia, further paving the way for the supply of Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs).
In addition, following the success with Ghana, the Singapore-Peru partnership moved further by opening applications for mitigation projects able to generate authorised ITMOs, backed by clear methodologies and a staged approval process. These steps are gradually shifting Article 6 frameworks from high-level diplomacy into practical investment pipelines.
For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on international carbon markets, including macro trends, other regional markets, CORSIA and Article 6 markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
The voluntary carbon market (VCM) extended its gradual recovery through October, as buyers continued to shift toward higher-integrity credits and the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) expanded its roster of approved methodologies.
Prices for top-rated projects continued to rise, while weaker legacy credits lagged further behind, deepening the quality-driven divergence that has defined the market this year.
According to AlliedOffsets, the index for the 500 most-retired projects climbed to US$4.87/t, up 3% on the month, marking continued steady appreciation since late 2024. In contrast, low-rated renewable-energy credits remained under US$1, while premium nature-based removals such as mangrove restoration and afforestation credits traded above US$25.
Analysts observed that demand is now heavily concentrated in projects rated BBB and above, underscoring investor preference for verified integrity over low-cost volume.
October saw significant integrity developments, with Gold Standard confirming that all credits of 2026 vintage and later will be issued through Paris-aligned methodologies, while the ICVCM granted eight new methodologies full Core Carbon Principles (CCP) approval—six engineered removals and two nature-based.
These updates reinforced confidence that a healthy pipeline of CCP-labelled credits will reach the market by 2026, as confirmed by Verra, which expects first-wave issuances next year.
Aggregated issuance and retirement data across five of the most prominent voluntary carbon registries (American Carbon Registry, Climate Action Reserve, Clean Development Mechanism, Gold Standard, and Verra’s Verified Carbon Standard) saw the balance of issuances to retirements tick higher to 85.35 million in the year-to-date, down 1.03 million the same time last year.
Surplus issuances across voluntary carbon’s largest registries have thus far been kept in-check by elevated retirements in the VCS registry, though the trend of recent months has seen issuances outpace retirements.
For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on international carbon markets, including macro trends, other regional markets, CORSIA and Article 6 markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
In mid-October, Gold Standard approved two additional insurance products for use by project developers seeking to supply carbon credits for CORSIA Phase I: CFC’s CORSIA Guarantee Insurance policy and Oka’s Corresponding Adjustment Protect policy.
The policies were assessed by Howden, a global re-insurance provider and broker, after appointment by Gold Standard in July. These join the World Bank’s MIGA Breach of Contract cover, bringing the total to three approved policies.
The insurance products are intended to cover CORSIA-eligible carbon credits in cases where emission reductions could be double counted by both the host country and the aircraft operator. The approvals expand options for developers to meet CORSIA eligibility, which requires either a host country’s corresponding adjustment under Article 6 or a Deed of Undertaking backed by approved insurance.
In the spot market, Phase I credit prices held firm across the month, remaining at US $23.20. This is amid unchanged market conditions and tight supply.
Ongoing challenges in securing Letters of Authorisation for corresponding adjustments and approvals of insurance products from crediting standards mean it is still uncertain whether any additional supply will materialise this year.
For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on international carbon markets, including macro trends, other regional markets, CORSIA and Article 6 markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
October marked a pivotal step in Australia’s biodiversity credit market with the release of the consultation paper for the proposed Enhancing Native Vegetation methodology under the Nature Repair Market (NRM). Unlike the existing replanting method, which targets cleared land, this new approach is designed to complementarily focus on improving the condition and diversity of degraded but extant native vegetation.
At the federal level, Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) released a proposed reform to the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation (EPBC) Act, marking the Act’s first major overhaul in 25 years.
The reform package introduced to Parliament aims to modernise Australia’s environmental laws by embedding stronger protections, streamlining approvals, and establishing a national offsets framework.
For monthly deep dives on Australian and global biodiversity markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
As observed in the Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance SAFc registry, 13,816 tonnes of SAF linked to credits were retired in October, representing a 57% MoM increase from September. Credit retirements were recorded primarily in Singapore and the US, and led to 42,666 tonnes of CO2 abated this month, 49% higher than recorded in September.
Consistent with previous months, Southwest Airlines retired the largest volume of SAF credits during the reporting period, totalling 4,730 MT SAF and representing 34% of the overall amount.
Alaska Airlines followed with 3,326 MT SAF and United Airlines with 2,206 MT SAF, accounting for 24% and 16%.
All credits were generated using Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) methodologies, and almost all the retired credits were used to offset Scope 1 emissions abatement, with the proportion claimed for Scope 3 increasing from 2% to 6% in October.
For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on international carbon markets, including macro trends, other regional markets, CORSIA and Article 6 markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
The events outlined in this month’s update highlight the evolving nature of global carbon and environmental markets and the complexity of the net zero transition.
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Global Environmental Markets Report - October 2025
