ACCU Market Monthly Report - October 2025

ACCU market overview for October 2025

• The ACCU market extended its upward momentum in October, closing at $38.40, up $1.10 on the month, marking the first sustained period of trading above the $38.00 level since December 2024. The market continued to reflect strong compliance-related demand, with trading persisting across Generic, No Avoided Deforestation (No AD), and Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) spot markets.
• Interestingly, while prices continued higher, total traded volumes softened. A total of 3.13 million ACCUs and SMCs exchanged hands in October, down 10% month-on-month and 10.3% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in forward and derivative activity following mid-year peaks.
• A notable shift in compliance buying behaviour has be observed across FY2025, with liable entities spreading procurement more evenly throughout the year. This has reduced the volatility in trading volumes typically seen ahead of compliance deadlines and contributed to steadier aggregate monthly activity.
• Policy and regulatory developments also remained a key market driver. On 20 October, the Climate Change Authority (CCA) opened its fifth ACCU Scheme Review, the first since the 2023 Safeguard Mechanism reforms. The review will run until 8 December 2025, focusing on method development, integrity and scalability, and whether current settings are delivering appropriate investment signals.
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Method-specific ACCU price movements and volumes traded

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ACCU price

• October price action built on September’s gains, with the Generic spot market consistently trading above $38.00 and closing the month at $38.40. The rally was supported by sustained compliance demand and expectations of tightening supply conditions following the reaffirmation of the Safeguard Mechanism’s central role in meeting the newly introduced NDC targets.
• HIR and No AD units tracked the Generic price closely, with HIR spot ACCUs trading level with Generic parcels, in line with recent trends. The Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) market remained in price discovery mode, with limited liquidity. Two OTC parcels were reported - a 5,000-unit trade at a $0.75 discount and a 10,000-unit parcel at a $0.50 discount to the prevailing Generic price -  consistent with recent activity in this emerging market.

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ACCU volumes traded

• October trading volumes declined for the third consecutive month. Total reported activity across spot, forward, and derivative markets reached 3.13 million ACCUs, down from 3.49 million in October 2024 and 3.53 million in September 2025.
• Spot trading remained the principal driver of activity, with 1.92 million ACCUs exchanged -  primarily Generic and No AD parcels -  compared with 2.07 million in July. The decline in total market activity was primarily attributed to a softening in derivative and forward trades, following elevated options activity earlier in the year.
• Market participants attributed the slowdown partly to the front-loading of compliance buying earlier in FY2025 and a shift in focus toward FY2026 procurement strategies. While near-term trading remains steady, forward interest has eased as buyers assess the implications of upcoming policy adjustments and review outcomes.

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ACCU price forecast

To help market participants better model their commercial position, the CORE Markets team has developed a unique method-specific ACCU price forecast.

We believe demand preferences will vary among buyer groups, the costs of developing new ACCUs will vary by methodology and that this will be reflected in the market for the foreseeable future.

The CORE Markets ACCU price forecast is created by our environmental markets advisory team with data from our carbon analytics platform.  

The model is continuously tested and refined with the help of an expert industry working group.

In addition to the base model, the CORE Markets team can provide a full suite of scenario analysis forecasts on a bespoke basis.

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Key insights from the latest forecast are available here.

ACCU demand

ACCU demand trends are considered in detail in our monthly analysis as available to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.

This includes:

• ACCU retirements
• SMC market activity
• Method-specific ACCU demand forecast
• Compliance hedging strategies

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ACCU supply

ACCU issuances

• The Clean Energy Regulator reported 2.65 million new ACCUs issued in the month to 30 September (latest reporting period), consistent with long-term issuance averages.
• LMS Energy and Terra Carbon led project generation with 856k and 460k certificates respectively, between them representing nearly half of total issuance. LMS’s Wollert Landfill Gas Project was the largest single contributor, generating 170k certificates, while AI Carbon’s Meka Station HIR project followed with 154k.
• Issuance activity spanned a dozen method categories, though the bulk of new supply remains concentrated in a small number of major project developers and methods. Continued scrutiny of method scalability and administrative processes remains a key focus of the ongoing CCA review.

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Carbon Abatement Contracts

For commentary on Carbon Abatement Contracts and the projected volumes of ACCUs in the Cost Containment Mechanism, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package - a digital subscription for deep market insights, cutting edge financial and physical data, advanced analytical tools and access to market experts.

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ACCU supply forecast

ACCU supply trends are considered in detail in our monthly analysis as available to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.

This includes:

• ACCU by-method supply forecast  
• Spotlight on the ACCU methodology pipeline

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Learn more about the Carbon Intelligence Package

Stay up-to-date with the ACCU market

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