This report is published monthly and provides a high-level overview of the key developments in select compliance and voluntary carbon, biodiversity and Sustainable Aviation Fuel markets.
This report is published monthly and provides a high-level overview of the key developments in select compliance and voluntary carbon, biodiversity and Sustainable Aviation Fuel markets.
*Please note: This report is produced using select data, commentary and insights as available in full to our Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.
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ACCU prices held steady in June despite lighter activity, as policy signals and supply expectations reshaped market positioning. Generic spot ACCUs closed A$0.10 higher at A$35.50, after having reached a five-month high of A$36.00 mid-month. Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) spot ACCUs closed level with Generic at A$35.75, while the spot No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) market edged A$0.05 lower to finish at A$35.45.
Overall traded volumes dipped slightly from May but remained strong at 2.95 million units — a 25% increase year-on-year. Forward trading was particularly active, with 560,000 units exchanged across a broad range of tenors above the prevailing spot price, reflecting a recalibration of expectations amid evolving federal policy discussions. Derivatives markets were also active, with puts struck between $32.00 and $35.00, and calls near A$38.00.
The Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) market remained thinly traded, with one 15,000-unit parcel transacted at A$35.00, narrowing the SMC–Generic spread to –$0.40.
Policy developments were front of mind. A public consultation closed on the exposure draft of the proposed new landfill gas (LFG) method, released the previous month, which suggested extended crediting periods and higher baselines for legacy projects, raising long-term supply expectations. Meanwhile, market participants responded to firming expectations that Australia’s 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) will aim for a 65–75% cut below 2005 levels. In combination with the forthcoming update to the NDC, May’s landfill gas update served to balance market sentiment.
Issuance rose to 2.12 million units in June, led by HIR (779k), LFG (549k), and Avoided Deforestation (354k). New registrations lifted, with 44 projects added, including 17 Soil Carbon and 8 Environmental Plantings.
In other developments, the government launched the SavCAM tool to improve accounting under savanna fire management methods. Speculation over COP31’s host nation continued, with Australia still in contention. Separately, uncertainty lingers over the future of the Climate Active program, amid a broader softening in voluntary climate commitments.
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For a comprehensive update on the ACCU market, read our monthly ACCU Market Monthly Report
Learn more about our ACCU Market Forecast Report, a method-specific ACCU market supply, demand and price forecast
June was a significant month for the New Zealand ETS, as the market traded higher month-on-month once again following the passage of yet another bidless auction.
Early in the month, it was flagged by the NZ government that advice from the Climate Change Commission (CCC) to increase (and roll over) quarterly auction volumes would be ignored, pointing to the potential dilution of the market.
On June 5th, a data release from the NZ government flagged the possibility of decreased yields from gas reserves. The intimated shift toward greater coal generation sparked discussions of increased NZU demand. Prices climbed from NZ$55 to NZ$57.45 shortly thereafter.
Later in June, an announcement from the New Zealand government on the changing of regulation for farmers’ allocation of forestry space was interpreted with a bullish sentiment by the market, as the policy is expected to constrict the pipeline of forestry expansion by limiting private land eligibility for plantations.
It is anticipated that the changes made to the permissions and allowances around forestry use will drive material scarcity in the market, compounded by the NZ government’s decision to limit the volumes made available at auctions, and withhold those NZUs that go uncleared.
Following the announcement the market gapped substantially higher to NZ$59.00, plateauing at NZ$59.70 on the 25th, before closing the month at NZ$58.70.
June’s quarterly auction marked the eighteenth consecutive quarterly auction to go uncleared. Despite the market rallying to its highest point since March, the uncleared volume did not come as a surprise to market participants.
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Each month we feature a different international market - this month's focus is CORSIA
The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) reached the halfway mark of its first compliance phase at the end of June. With demand expected to far exceed available supply, airlines covered under this phase will need to carefully consider their strategy for meeting obligations.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), updated calculations based on Q1 2025 traffic suggest demand for CORSIA-eligible credits during Phase I could reach - or exceed - 160 Mt. This sits at the top end of IATA’s high-demand scenario forecast from September 2024 (161 Mt), and surpasses recent high-demand scenario projections from MSCI Carbon Markets (137 Mt, Nov 2024) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (150 Mt, Mar 2025). Continued growth in international air traffic appears to be the key driver of these rising estimates. With continued constrained supply, how this demand will be met remains uncertain.
At present, Guyana’s ART-TREES programme is the sole source of CORSIA-eligible supply. The next wave of credits is expected from cookstove projects, including KOKO Networks' bio-ethanol initiative in Kenya and DelAgua’s clean cookstove programmes in Rwanda, The Gambia, and Sierra Leone. These are expected to issue credits under the Gold Standard and Verified Carbon Standard in the near term.
However, all these projects have encountered delays. For example, the insurance agreement between the World Bank’s MIGA and KOKO Networks - designed to safeguard against the risk of corresponding adjustment revocation - took over two years to finalise. With CORSIA Phase I credits due for surrender by January 2028, this raises concerns that insurance-related bottlenecks could further slow the timeline for scaling up eligible supply.
For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on international carbon markets, including macro trends, CORSIA and Article 6 markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
The voluntary carbon market (VCM) continues to experience a bearish phase, with declining prices and shrinking liquidity amid regulatory uncertainties and market transitions. The AlliedOffsets Tradeable 20 index, which tracks the most liquid credits, fluctuated between US$2.06 and US$2.71, down from May’s peak of US$3.43.
Market reports from Ecosystem Marketplace show that the total value of the voluntary market dropped sharply last year to US$535 million, with secondary market activity softening to 84.4 million credits, down 25% on the year prior.
Regulatory uncertainty continues to weigh on the market. The European Commission initially announced plans to withdraw the Green Claims Directive but later backtracked, indicating it intends to revise the proposal in response to concerns about regulatory overreach and its impact on small businesses. This ongoing uncertainty has prompted wider price swings and subdued market activity. The directive’s future - which could influence corporate offset use - is contributing to weaker sentiment across the VCM.
Meanwhile, market participants mare closely monitoring policy developments in influential jurisdictions such as France, Germany, and Singapore, as they flag their support of the use of voluntary carbon credits in line with guidelines set by the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market and the UNFCCC’s Article 6 rulebook. Despite the challenging environment, some high-tier credits appreciate a premium, indicating that quality and credibility are increasingly critical factors in trading decisions.
For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on the voluntary carbon market, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
For monthly deep dives on Australian and global biodiversity markets , including the interplays with carbon markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
June 2025 finds the SAF sector at a pivotal moment. IATA published their views on the industry, reporting this year’s SAF output will cover 0.5-1% of jet fuel demand and is set to double the current amount, reaching 2 million tonnes by 2025. However, it needs to exponentially grow over the next decade to meet climate targets. Regional developments are showing positive signs of policy support for boosting supply. Price was mildly affected by the war, in line with oil price hikes, but no impact was seen affecting fundamental supply demand dynamics.
For monthly deep dives on Australian and global SAF uptake, including how it interplays with carbon markets, explore our CORE Markets Carbon Intelligence Package
The events outlined in this month’s update highlight the evolving nature of global carbon and environmental markets and the complexity of the net zero transition.
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Global Environmental Markets Report - June 2025
