This report is published monthly and provides a high-level overview of the key developments in select compliance and voluntary carbon and biodiversity markets.
This report is published monthly and provides a high-level overview of the key developments in select compliance and voluntary carbon, biodiversity and Sustainable Aviation Fuel markets.
*Please note: This report is produced using select data, commentary and insights as available in full to our Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.
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April marked a turning point in the ACCU market, with bullish sentiment returning following mid-month volatility tied to Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) issuance data and election uncertainty. No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) spot prices recovered to close at A$35.05, up A$2.05 month-on-month - the first monthly gain since November, with Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) and Generic spot units making a similar recovery.
Prices dipped mid-month to A$33.25 following the Clean Energy Regulator’s release of detailed SMC issuance data. While the total issuance volume was known earlier, new insights into recipient facilities - dominated by Shell and Anglo American, with 25% of total issuance between them - informed participants on the workings of the new market. Market reaction was briefly bearish, though improving Labor polling reversed sentiment in the final fortnight, lifting Generic and HIR spot ACCUs to close at A$35.00.
SMC trading remained subdued in April, with a single spot trade executed at A$33.00 - A$1.90 below Generic levels - signalling an emerging pricing gap. Methodology-specific trades included one Plantation Forestry parcel at A$35.00 and an Environmental Plantings parcel at A$54.00.
Trading volumes were strong across the most liquid spot markets. No AD once again led with 1.4 million units exchanged, followed by Generics (560k) and HIRs (337k). Generic derivatives trading continued to rise, with nearly 1.1 million options traded - suggesting increasing market sophistication. No forward trades were reported.
New quarterly data showed ACCU issuance contracting to 3.4 million in Q1 2025 (down from 6.17m in Q4 2024), despite stable project registration. Vegetation methods remained dominant, though HIR project registration has ceased ahead of the protracted rollout of the troublesome Integrated Farm and Land Management methodology. Disruptions to the pipeline of new ACCU methodologies, in combination with softer-than-expected unit generation from new projects, indicate the possibility of looming supply shortfalls.
Monthly issuance in March reached 966k, led by HIR (608k). Terra Carbon topped proponent issuance with 98k across nine projects, while Heffernan Forest Regeneration and Consolidated Pastoral Company’s Beef Herd Project saw the largest parcel volumes for individual projects. Post-election, market participants expect greater policy certainty under the re-elected Labor government.
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For a comprehensive update on the ACCU market, read our monthly ACCU Market Monthly Report
Learn more about our ACCU Market Forecast Report, a method-specific ACCU market supply, demand and price forecast
The trend of recent months continued in April for the New Zealand Unit (NZU) market, with spot units dropping to their lowest levels in ten months. From their peak at the NZ$65.00-level on January 23rd, a bearish sentiment saw the market plummet across March and into April, with the spot opening the month at NZ$56.40 (April 1st), and softening to below the $50.00-level by month’s end, for the first time since mid-June 2024.
In a report submitted to New Zealand’s Minister of Climate Change Simon Watts, the Climate Change Commission (CCC) recommended that the government increase the number of units available at auction in the coming years. The report, which forecasts the current surplus to contract at faster-than-expected rates, suggested that an additional 13.6 million units be made available between 2028 and 2030.
The news contributed to a bearish sentiment which drove prices lower, losing NZ$5.45 to hit NZ$50.95 on the 17th, before bottoming-out at NZ$48.90 on the 28th.
Looking to the next quarterly auction, slated for mid-June, the current oversupply has meant that market participants are confident that the impending auction volume is set to remain uncleared. At time of writing, the NZU spot price sits well-below the auction’s NZ$68.00 price floor.
In April, participants received reports that the NZ government was set to introduce legislation intended to slow the issuance of units generated from exotic afforestation – a methodology which contributes greatly to the current supply composition. While the NZUs have been in the grips of a bear market, participants watch eagerly to see whether these developments might support the green shoots of regrowth.
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Each month we feature a different international market - this month's focus is Japan
In April, Japan signalled early efforts to revise the implementation processes of its Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM), with the goal of improving efficiency and increasing project registrations. Japan implemented its JCM in 2013 as a lever to support low-carbon technology deployment in partner countries whilst generating carbon credits. Yet only some 900,000 credits have been issued since its inauguration.
On 1 April, it designated the Global Environment Centre (GEC) - which has previously handled much of the administrative work for the JCM - as the JCM Implementation Agency (JCMA). Acting on behalf of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), as well as the environment and agricultural ministries, the JCMA will coordinate with partner countries to streamline the process for generating Paris-aligned credits. This could expedite project development by unifying responsibilities currently split across departments, which has been a constraint to scaling up the JCM.
In the same week, Japan announced it will replace its existing JCM project implementation guidelines with those aligned to the Article 6.2 framework. Under the new approach, JCM credits will be approved as Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) at the time of project registration, rather than at first issuance as was previously the case.
This change is expected to provide greater certainty to project proponents regarding ITMO eligibility, while still allowing for adjustments to issuance volumes during the verification process. Previously, JCM host countries were limited to using their allocated credits for domestic targets. The option to monetize JCM-issued credits could serve as a strong driver for increased host-country engagement in the scheme.
Later in the month, Japan launched a call for proposals seeking JCM projects that deliver co-benefits beyond emissions reductions. Selected projects will receive subsidies aimed at introducing decarbonisation technologies that have not yet been deployed through the JCM in partner countries.
For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on international carbon markets, including macro trends, CORSIA and Article 6 markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
The voluntary carbon market softened in April, with projects across various registries affected by geopolitical headwinds. Market sentiment slipped from March’s steady footing, as prices fell sharply early in the month before partially rebounding into the final week.
Following March’s slump in retirements, softer demand persisted into April, but improved retirement figures decreased the monthly surplus across the five major registries from nearly 9 mil additional units issued in March to 4.5 mil in April. This compares to 2024’s monthly surplus of more than 6.9 mil. While ACR, Gold Standard and Climate Action Reserve registries each posted surpluses in April, Verra’s VCM posted a deficit of nearly 6.6 mil units for the month, continuing an unbroken monthly deficit run since September of last year.
Market activity was muted across standardised contracts, with ICE CORSIA Phase 1 (CP1) futures closing at US$15.25, down US$0.15 across April, amid continued inactivity and regulatory opacity. Long-term optimism persisted following ICAO’s demand forecast of 100 - 150 million units for 2024–26, but uncertainty over near-term eligibility kept traders sidelined. Market participants await the April 29th launch of Xpansiv’s GEO-CP1 spot contract, expected to deliver fresh liquidity across CBL, ACE, and JSE platforms.
Policy traction improved, with the UK and France both backing the use of CCP-aligned credits under VCMI frameworks, reinforcing the shift towards integrity-based differentiation. Core Carbon Principles (CCP) price stratification was evident: Calyx Global recorded a 24% premium for top-tier projects in an otherwise weak market. Yet high-value credits, including Delta Blue Carbon 1, continued to lose ground, slipping to US$24.83 by late April.
While corporate engagement remained slow, early-stage signs of structural growth persisted, with Microsoft’s landmark 6.75 million-credit CDR deal and progress on Article 6.4 signalling cautious momentum as markets await improved supply integrity and clarity on CCP eligibility.
For in-depth data, analysis and commentary on the voluntary carbon market, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
As Australia headed towards its federal election, nature and conservation groups were actively campaigning for stronger biodiversity policies. Currently less than 1 cent of every $100 in the federal budget is allocated to nature conservation. With a total FY25/26 budget of almost $800 billion, this equates to a modest $307 million (approx.) commitment toward nature positive improvements.
In contrast, the Greens are advocating for a significant increase of funding – at around 1% of the federal budget (approx. $800 million) for biodiversity and a $5 billion Protected Areas Fund. The Coalition has been criticised for lacking clear biodiversity policy commitments.
The UK Government launched a public consultation in April on a new Voluntary Carbon and Nature Markets (VCNM) framework to raise the integrity of voluntary carbon and nature markets.
The European Commission hosted a high-level roundtable in Brussels to explore the role of nature credits in financing ecosystem restoration. The credits are expected to boost private sector investment in biodiversity. This market is still at its nascent stage with two pilots currently underway: a forest project in Estonia and a farmlands project in France.
The Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) and the IFRS Foundation announced a collaboration to enable nature-related financial disclosures for capital markets. TNFD was previously working with the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) on the Biodiversity, Ecosystems and Ecosystem Services (BEES) research project in2024. The outcomes of the research will feed into the new guide.
For monthly deep dives on Australian and global biodiversity markets , including the interplays with carbon markets, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package.
Jet fuel prices declined by approximately 5% in April due to low demand resulting from US tariffs. The same trend is apparent in SAF feedstock prices. For example, Used Cooking Oil (UCO) was trading above US$1,010/MT across March but just slight above $950/MT on average in April.
SAF prices, on the other hand, remained relatively stable. For example, SAF obtained as part of the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive voluntary scheme dropped less than 1% month-on-month, landing at US$1,762.69/MT on average, as reported on S&P Platts..
Based on CORE Markets research, this brings the aggregate carbon price of SAF to US$319.59/ tCO2e* in the EU and US$596.42/ tCO2e* in the US.
*Note: These values are calculated based on the SAF premium and the average emissions savings from SAF used within each region.
In terms of SAF credits, according to the Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance (SABA) SABA SAF registry data, 149.17 tonnes of SAF linked to credits was retired in the US in April (a volume similar to March), and 152.55 tonnes was retired in the EU (there were no EU retirements in March). Both regional retirements contributed to a total of 1005.56 tCO2e abated. The average emissions reduction here compared to the use of jet fuel is over 82%.
Also similar to March, half of the associated credits retired were used for the purpose of Scope 1 abatement, with almost 80% for direct aviation-related emissions. The remaining half were used for other indirect aviation-related emissions. All these credits were developed using Hydro processed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) methodologies.
For monthly deep dives on Australian and global SAF uptake, including how it interplays with carbon markets, explore our CORE Markets Carbon Intelligence Package
The events outlined in this month’s update highlight the evolving nature of global carbon and environmental markets and the complexity of the net zero transition.
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Global Environmental Markets Report - April 2025
