ACCU Market Monthly Report - July 2025

ACCU market overview for July 2025

• After several months of easing volumes, July marked a sharp reversal – with 4.2 million ACCUs exchanged across Australia’s compliance market. That’s an 87% increase on June’s total and the second-highest monthly volume since November 2024’s peak of 4.38 million.
• The uptick likely reflected the cumulative effects of regulatory developments, forward-looking policy signals, and a recalibrated post-election landscape - all helping to lift year-on-year activity as market confidence improved.
• The softer activity in preceding months appears to represent a seasonal trend, now broken by July’s rebound. The passage of the March Safeguard compliance deadline, followed by important dates in other green energy and efficiency markets, has historically led to softer mid-year trading volumes. Even so, each month of 2025 has seen a material increase in activity year-on-year, with January and July standing out, recording 170% and 250% higher volumes than then same months last year, respectively.  
• Elsewhere, the re-elected Albanese government has turned its attention to the issue of stalling productivity, with implications for carbon and green energy markets. The Productivity Commission’s findings, namely its recommendation to expand the Safeguard Mechanism to cover facilities emitting between 25,000 and 100,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent, dominated discussion in the market.
• Adding to this momentum, Ross Garnaut’s renewed call for a national carbon price - alongside a proposal to credit surplus LGCs against future carbon liabilities - combined with Ken Henry’s framing of climate, energy, and biodiversity laws as central to the productivity challenge, further strengthened market expectations of tightening ACCU supply and rising demand.
• Bullish sentiment prevailed in late July, with Generic and No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) spot ACCUs closing at monthly highs in anticipation of the Productivity Commission’s announcement, fuelled also by increased compliancy buying.

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Method-specific ACCU price movements and volumes traded

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ACCU price

• ACCU spot markets saw pronounced bi-directional price action in the month, with the Generic spot market peaking early at $35.55 on the 3rd, with No Avoided-Deforestation (No AD) spot ACCUs reaching $35.60. This was followed by a period of softened buyer flow that weighed on the market.
• Thin trading volumes fuelled a bear run on the 11th, with intraday prices falling $0.75, before recovering to close the day at the same level. Patchy liquidity and heightened volatility spurred bi-directional price action between $34.00 and $34.50 until the 25th.
• The market remained thin as offers climbed steadily higher and buyers continued lifting offers - a dynamic that extended into a late-month bull run, with spot markets closing at the monthly high, $35.60 for pure Generics, and $35.75 for No AD and Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR).

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ACCU volumes traded

• July’strading saw volumes increase by nearly 90%, with total activity reaching 4.2million units exchanged. As in recent months, No AD ACCUs comprised the lion’sshare of the activity, while pure Generic volumes were bolstered by a strong monthin the derivatives markets. HIR volumes were soft, comprising only 8% of totalvolumes, and premium method-specific markets were dormant. SMC volumes,however, saw 100,000 units traded.
• Asidefrom the spot ACCU markets, SMCs saw an increase in activity as well, withtrades reported consistently across the month. July's 100,000 total representsa marked month-on-month increase for the nascent market, which is expected toremain quiet until increased compliance buying fuels further price discovery.
• Inthe forwards markets, around 260,000 units were exchanged across varioustenors. Compared to other compliance instruments in green energy and energyefficiency markets, the ACCU forwards market has taken a backseat, withactivity shifting toward derivatives.  Nearly 1.8 million units were agreed inoptionality in July, representing yet another month-on-month increase and signallingthe further maturing of Australia's compliance carbon market.

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ACCU price forecast

To help market participants better model their commercial position, the CORE Markets team has developed a unique method-specific ACCU price forecast.

We believe demand preferences will vary among buyer groups, the costs of developing new ACCUs will vary by methodology and that this will be reflected in the market for the foreseeable future.

The CORE Markets ACCU price forecast is created by our environmental markets advisory team with data from our carbon analytics platform.  

The model is continuously tested and refined with the help of an expert industry working group.

In addition to the base model, the CORE Markets team can provide a full suite of scenario analysis forecasts on a bespoke basis.

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ACCU demand

ACCU demand trends are considered in detail in our monthly analysis as available to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.

This includes:

• ACCU retirements
• SMC market activity
• Method-specific ACCU demand forecast
• Compliance hedging strategies

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ACCU supply

ACCU issuances

• Some 2.35 million ACCUs were issued in the month to June 30, the most recent reporting period. Units generated via Human-Induced Regeneration methodologies dominated the new inventory, comprising approximately 1.08 million of the monthly issuance. Another swathe of savanna fire management (SFM) units, totalling 393k ACCUs, were issued in the month, with Olkola Aboriginal Corporation (73k) issued the largest quantity.
• Generation of new inventory was dominated by a handful of project proponents, with TerraCarbon registering some 720k units across thirty-one new projects, via HIR, savanna fire management, and avoided deforestation methodologies. The Western Australia Rangelands Conservation site received the single biggest parcel in the month, generating nearly 450k units.
• Five projects administered by water utility Veolia also generated some 255k units, using landfill gas and alternative waste methodologies. LMS Energy also generated nearly 220k landfill gas units in the month.
• June’s issuance represents another month-on-month increase, following May’s strong 2.17 million figure.

Carbon Abatement Contracts

For commentary on Carbon Abatement Contracts and the projected volumes of ACCUs in the Cost Containment Mechanism, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package - a digital subscription for deep market insights, cutting edge financial and physical data, advanced analytical tools and access to market experts.

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ACCU supply forecast

ACCU supply trends are considered in detail in our monthly analysis as available to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.

This includes:

• ACCU by-method supply forecast  
• Spotlight on the ACCU methodology pipeline

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Stay up-to-date with the ACCU market

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