Market Update September 2022

Below is a lite version of our monthly carbon & energy market update.

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• August brought significantly less Spot electricity volatility across the NEM compared to July, with average prices falling significantly in all NEM states. Flat Futures prices however moved up significantly due to high coal and gas futures.
• Wholesale domestic gas prices fell to almost a third of the level experienced in July, partly caused by an APLNG train outage at end of August which led to more supply into the domestic market.
• ACCUs and STCs remained stable, however LGCs across all current and future vintages recorded one of the largest ever month-on-month price increases.
• AEMO released their ESOO highlighting the potential for significant supply shortfalls as early as next year, due to upcoming coal closures and increased demand for electricity.
• A new all-time high Wind production for the NEM of 7,305MW registered on the evening of August 4^th, with August 2022 the highest wind production month in the NEM to date.
• The Federal government has released an updated technical design paper for the Safeguard Mechanism indicating that large emitters may be required to achieve an annual emissions reduction of 6%, up from 3.5%.

• ACCU’s remained stable.

Feature 1: Reliability gaps identified in 2022 ESOO

The Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) forecasts electricity supply reliability in the National Electricity Market (NEM) over a 10-year period to inform decisions by market participants, investors, and policy-makers, and was released on August 31^st 2022…

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Feature 2: Record monthly wind generation

The month of August saw the highest wind generation on record due to windy conditions across the eastern seaboard…

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