LGC prices rallied in June after a long quiet stretch. We look at how data centre demand, and the policy choices that drive it, could reshape Australia's renewable energy certificate market.
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Australia's renewable energy certificate market has been subdued for much of 2026 - Large-scale Generation Certificates (LGCs) trading near multi-year lows, voluntary demand thin, and the Renewable Energy Guarantee of Origin (REGO) scheme live but yet to see a trade.
A sharp rally in LGC prices through June is one signal worth watching, but on its own it does not change the underlying picture.
The Renewable Energy Target sunsets at the end of 2030, voluntary buying has not kept pace, and the next source of demand will determine how Australia's certificate market develops from here.
Attention is turning to data centres. They run large, steady loads, AEMO's 2026 Integrated System Plan treats them as a material planning variable, and Australian energy ministers have flagged that new sites may be required to invest in renewable generation and firming where they operate. Ireland already requires new centres to meet at least 80% of annual demand with new domestic renewables.
Our latest article looks at data centres as a demand catalyst, what Ireland's approach signals for Australia, and how design choices - additionality, location and time-matching - could shape whether new demand draws down today's LGC surplus or helps build a REGO market alongside it.
The full article is now live in the CORE Markets platform.
