ACCU Market Monthly Report - November 2024

ACCU market overview for November 2024

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ACCU market highlights

• After substantial price growth in October, price levels for the ACCU market increased once again in November, with various methodologies and tenors enjoying gains, reaching levels not seen since March 2022.
• Generic, No Avoided Deforestation (No AD), and Human Induced Regeneration (HIR) ACCUs all saw growth across the month, spurred by sustained healthy engagement from Safeguard entities ahead of the March 2025 surrender date.
• November saw the release of the Clean Energy Regulator’s (CER) Quarterly Carbon Market Reports. Carbon Abatement Contract (CAC) exit figures remained unmoved from October’s 3.74mil. The CER’s forecast sits at between seven and 14 million for the current CAC exit window.

Learn more about our ACCU Market Forecast Report, a method-specific ACCU market supply, demand and price forecast

ACCU method-specific price movements and volumes traded

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ACCU price

• ACCU prices continued to lift across much of November, with Generic, No AD, and HIR spots breaching the $40.00 level at their peak. The market softened in the latter part of the month, showing greater volatility and a retreat to earlier levels.
• Generic, No AD and HIR spots tracked tightly across November generally trading with a minimal price differential across the month.  Opening the month at $38.70 (Gen.) and $38.50 (No AD) on the 1st, a spike on the 4th saw both units trade above $42.00, with the HIR spot opening at $40.00 the same day. Sustained buying pressure pushed the Generic spot to the monthly-high of $42.60 on the 18th, while No AD spots ($42.70) and HIR spots ($42.75) peaked a day later.
• These were the highest prices for the most frequently traded ACCU methodologies since the Carbon Abatement Contract rule change saw prices slump across the ACCU market in March 2022. Selling pressure and a pause in buyer flow eventually saw prices lose ground, with the Generic spots trading lower on the 19th to $41.50, with No AD and HIR spots following soon after. November ended with trades at $40.55 for Generic and No AD spots, and $40.65 for HIR spots.
• While HIR spots have typically held a premium over Generics, recent months have seen the most commonly traded ACCU methodologies trading closer together. Despite often bumpy price movements across the month, HIR ACCUs rarely breached the $0.20 premium over No AD across November, as market participants rarely allowed the contracts to get too far out of lockstep.

ACCU volumes traded

• November saw a 25% increase on October’s total traded volume, surpassing the previous month’s figure by more than one million units to reach nearly 4.5mil ACCUs exchanged.
• Spots drove most of the month’s increased trading activity, with more than 1.6mil No AD spots traded in November (an increase of 1mil over October), and 1.15mil Generic spots exchanged over the same period (up from 285k the month prior). The buying pressure seen early in the month, also responsible for driving the price of various methodologies higher, accounted for the bulk of November’s heightened activity. Nearly 85% of the month’s No AD spot parcels were exchanged before November 15th, with similar patterns for Generic and No AD spots (78% and 67% traded in the first half of November, respectively).
• Options activity remained elevated in November, despite volumes failing to reach October’s record-breaking levels. Comprising 550k of the month’s volume, October’s activity evidenced a sustained appetite for more complex structures. Forwards trading was down on October’s volumes, totalling 308k compared to 724k the month prior.
• As in October, premium methodologies remained largely dormant, with a Savanna Fire Management parcel (Jan-25) exchanged in 15k, and an Environmental Plantings spot parcel traded in 10k.

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Learn more about our ACCU Market Forecast Report, a method-specific ACCU market supply, demand and price forecast

ACCU supply, issuance & project registration

• In the two issuance updates across November, ACCU issuance increased to 2.43mil units, jumping 117% from October’s total. This brings the year’s issuance to just shy of 16mil and the CER’s revised forecast of 19mil within swinging distance.
• HIRs remained elevated, with entities producing 243k extra units, to total 856k HIRs created across the month. Driving the growth, however, were Landfill Gas ACCUs, more than tripling October’s figure (279k) to reach 917k in November. Following a quiet October (15k issued), Avoided Deforestation ACCUs also increased, comprising more than 340k of the month’s total.
• Carbon Abatement Contract (CAC) exits remained unmoved across November at 3.74mil, after jumping 1.2mil in October. More than three million exits are required to meet the bottom end of CER’s revised target of between seven and 14 million units for the current 18-month CAC exit window.
• LMS Energy received the largest batch of ACCUs in the month’s first issuance period (550k units across 23 projects), comprising the bulk of landfill gas ACCUs issued in the month. Its Wollert Landfill Gas Project received some 84k units, the largest allotment for that issuance. Terra Carbon also received 90k ACCUs across four projects in the same period.

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Other market developments

• The updated Environmental Plantings methodology was announced on the 20th, with revisions to improve accessibility for smaller projects, alongside changes to decrease turnaround for projects in their infancy, greater flexibility for plantings projects across various climates, and greater scrutiny on reporting and project efficacy.
  
  Revisions will “increase integrity and make it easier for landholders to undertake projects, benefiting land managers, industry, and First Nations peoples,” said Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen.
• Also in November, the new integrated farm land management methodology, announced late in October, was pushed back to mid-2025, sparking fears of unit supply concerns among some market participants.

Stay up-to-date with the ACCU market

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