ACCU Market Monthly Report - December 2024

ACCU market overview for December 2024

‍

ACCU market highlights

• Prior to the typical holiday slowdown, the ACCU market saw sustained elevated activity as prices retraced earlier levels across various methodologies and tenors.
• After reaching their peak in November, the Generic, No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) and Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) spots retreated below the $40.00 resistance level, closing the year with trades in the mid-$36.00s.
• Though down on November’s elevated levels, a busy start to December outweighed the late holiday slump to total nearly 3.85 mil ACCUs traded across the month.
• After issuing some 2.43mil units across November, the Clean Energy Regulator’s (CER) Q4 data release shows a healthy issuance for the month, bringing the yearly total to 18.78mil (2.85mil in December, approx.). Though short of the CER’s revised projection of 19mil, 2024’s total issuance surpasses 2023’s by more than 1.5mil units.

Learn more about our ACCU Market Forecast Report, a method-specific ACCU market supply, demand and price forecast

ACCU method-specific price movements and volumes traded

‍

ACCU price

• Generic, No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) and Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) ACCUs opened the month with trades at monthly highs, with parcels exchanged at $40.10 (Generic), $40.00 (No AD) and $40.75 (HIR). The market dropped sharply on the 3rd to reach $37.00 for Generics, and $37.50 for No ADs and HIR ACCUs. Prices recovered on the 4th, peaking at $39.00, before sustained selling pressure saw Generic, No AD and HIR spots drop below the $37.00 support established earlier.
• Following consistent price growth from mid-October to the $42.60 peak (Nov. 19th), Generic and No AD spots declined steadily to eradicate those earlier gains, closing the year at $36.50. Following the same profile, HIR spots contracted across the month to close at $36.75.
• Carrying on from the final days of November, where the market saw the differential between Generic and HIR ACCUs narrow to parity, December saw this trend entrenched further. As can be seen on the chart labelled ‘ACCU HIR/Generic Spread,’ the daily closing price of HIR and Generic spot ACCUs were at level pegging across December. This is especially noteworthy, given the significant price movements across the month ($3.60 spread between the Generic spot’s highest and lowest prices).
• As in recent months, activity in premium methodologies was once again sparse, with one parcel of Environmental Plantings ACCUs exchanged at $50.00 in 13.5k.

‍

ACCU volumes traded

• December saw trading volumes remain elevated across various ACCU tenors and methodologies. Despite totalling some 700k fewer units traded than November’s record-breaking sum, the 3.82mil ACCUs exchanged made December the second most prolific month for trader activity. Some 2.8mil ACCUs, roughly 73% of all traded volume, were exchanged in the first two weeks of December, ahead of the holiday slowdown.
• Derivatives activity was up on November’s 550k, totalling nearly 950k-odd units in options trading. The highest volume by month was in October, peaking at just over one million units.

‍

‍

Learn more about our ACCU Market Forecast Report, a method-specific ACCU market supply, demand and price forecast

ACCU supply, issuance & project registration

• The Clean Energy Regulator’s Q4 data release brought issuance for 2024 to 18.78mil units. Despite falling 22k short of the Regulator’s revised estimate of 19mil, the year’s total issuance exceeds 2023’s figure – the next highest on-record – by more than 1.5mil units, with 6.17mil issued in Q4 alone. 2.85mil cancellations took place across the year, surpassing 2023’s total by some 900k.
• In a separate data release, some 505k ACCUs were issued across the first the month’s first issuance period to December 18th. HIR projects comprised 59% (300k) of total issuance, as landfill gas ACCUs remained elevated at 35% (89k) of total issuance, alongside Coal Mine Waste Gas units at 14%.
• EDL’s German Creek Coal Mine Waste Gas project was the single largest generator in December, receiving some 73k ACCUs. LMS generated more than 52k Landfill Gas ACCUs across three projects. Other proponents, including LGI and Terra Carbon, generated more than thirty thousand units of various methodologies.
• At 3.995mil units, the Carbon Abatement Contract (CAC) exit figure remains short of the seven to thirteen million units projected to exit in the fourth pilot window. The CER attributes this shortfall to lower-than-anticipated unit generation from new projects.
• The ACCU supply, issuance & project registration section will be updated when CER data is published for the second half of December.

‍

Stay up-to-date with the ACCU market

‍

• Learn more about our ACCU Market Forecast Report, a method-specific ACCU market supply, demand and price forecast.
• Talk to us about your market approach and how CORE Markets can support your strategic and transactional needs across ACCU market, environmental market and clean energy markets.
• ‍Request a demo of our carbon markets analytics platform, which includes ACCU market data across major methodologies, including forward price curves.
• Track the Generic ACCU price, it’s updated on our website each day.‍
• Sign-up to receive our regular carbon and clean energy insights – including this ACCU Market Monthly Report – directly in your inbox. Simply click the ‘Subscribe now’ button on the bottom of this page.