ACCU Market Monthly Report - August 2025

ACCU market overview for August 2025

• August saw momentum hold firm after July’s surge in trade volumes, with sustained high-volume activity supporting a further strengthening in price. Generic spot ACCUs closed the month at an eight-month high of $36.90, breaking free from the $34.00–$36.00 range that had contained the market for much of 2025. The lift was underpinned by renewed Safeguard compliance buying, alongside intermediary demand, and hedging and positioning strategies, all of which kept turnover elevated.
• The Productivity Commission’s interim report added weight to this backdrop, recommending the expansion of the Safeguard Mechanism to cover facilities emitting between 25,000 and 100,000 tonnes CO₂-e while reaffirming unrestricted use of ACCUs within the scheme. This policy signal, coupled with growing speculation around Australia’s forthcoming 2035 climate target, has further anchored expectations that demand will continue to build into the second half of the decade.
• Even so, supply side concerns re-emerged through August, with discussion around new Savanna Fire Management methodologies highlighting the potential for a sharp increase in issuance. Some analysts warned that back-crediting historical sequestration could bring a sizeable wave of supply into the market, potentially weighing on long-term price signals if not carefully managed under integrity standards.
• At 1.55 million new units, ACCU registrations in the month to July 31 (the most recent reporting period) fell short of recent monthly sums, with issuance dominated by  Savanna Fire Management (40%) and Human-Induced Regeneration (36%) methods. July’s issuance was 28% short the Q2 monthly average.
• Looking ahead, the Climate Change Authority is due to release its advice on Australia’s 2035 target in September, with implications for Safeguard settings and  medium-term market dynamics.  Market participants are also watching for progress on savanna method development and the final Productivity Commission report due in December, both of which could influence expectations around ACCU supply and demand in the years ahead.

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Method-specific ACCU price movements and volumes traded

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ACCU price

• The Generic, No Avoided Deforestation (No AD) and Human-Induced Regeneration (HIR) spot markets saw upward price action over August, with Generic spots closing $1.35 higher  month-on-month, at $36.90. The No AD spot market’s high of $37.75, reached on the 26th, represents the highest traded price for either a No AD or Generic parcel since December 17th of last year, when market prices were tapering off following the peak of compliance buying.
• Minimal Safeguard Mechanism Credit (SMC) activity was heard in the month, with two 10k spot parcels reported in late-August at $36.90. The spread between spot ACCUs and SMCs narrowed to around $0.35, firming the differential which has revealed itself in recent months.
• Thinner liquidity persisted into August for other method-specific parcels, with one 9k parcel of Plantation Forestry spots trading later in the month at a premium of around $0.10.

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ACCU volumes traded

• Market activity eased from July’s sharp spike, with August recording 3.7 million units across spot, derivatives, forwards, and swaps - a 12% decline month-on-month.
• Spot trading was led by No Avoided Deforestation parcels, which accounted for 65% (1.2 million) of volumes, while Human-Induced Regeneration slipped to just 7% of overall activity, well below the 2024 monthly average of 22%.
• Derivatives remained active, totalling 1.4 million units, comfortably above 2024’s monthly averages though 21% lower than July’s record.

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ACCU price forecast

To help market participants better model their commercial position, the CORE Markets team has developed a unique method-specific ACCU price forecast.

We believe demand preferences will vary among buyer groups, the costs of developing new ACCUs will vary by methodology and that this will be reflected in the market for the foreseeable future.

The CORE Markets ACCU price forecast is created by our environmental markets advisory team with data from our carbon analytics platform.  

The model is continuously tested and refined with the help of an expert industry working group.

In addition to the base model, the CORE Markets team can provide a full suite of scenario analysis forecasts on a bespoke basis.

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Key insights from the latest forecast are available here.

ACCU demand

ACCU demand trends are considered in detail in our monthly analysis as available to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.

This includes:

• ACCU retirements
• SMC market activity
• Method-specific ACCU demand forecast
• Compliance hedging strategies

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ACCU supply

ACCU issuances

• At 1.55 million units, ACCU issuances in the month to July 31 fell well below recent levels, down 34% from June and 28% short of the Q2 monthly average. Supply was led by Savanna Fire Management (38%) and Human-Induced Regeneration (36%) methods.
• Arnhem Land Fire Abatement Northern Territory (ALFA NT) accounted for nearly 550,000 savanna credits, with its West Arnhem Land Fire Abatement project delivering the largest single parcel. Terra Carbon received around 220,000 certificates across 18 projects, while a further 560,000 HIR credits were generated across 22 proponents. Five additional proponents contributed a combined 226,000 landfill gas units.

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Carbon Abatement Contracts

For commentary on Carbon Abatement Contracts and the projected volumes of ACCUs in the Cost Containment Mechanism, explore our Carbon Intelligence Package - a digital subscription for deep market insights, cutting edge financial and physical data, advanced analytical tools and access to market experts.

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ACCU supply forecast

ACCU supply trends are considered in detail in our monthly analysis as available to Carbon Intelligence Package subscribers.

This includes:

• ACCU by-method supply forecast  
• Spotlight on the ACCU methodology pipeline

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Stay up-to-date with the ACCU market

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