Quarter 4 of 2025 marked another important period of adjustment for Australia’s ACCU market. While near‑term activity continued to be shaped by compliance cycles and existing supply, longer‑term signals around demand growth, supply development and price formation are becoming clearer.
Australia’s ACCU market continues to be anchored by rising compliance demand, with existing projects and accumulated holdings providing near‑term supply comfort.
Further out, however, market balance is becoming increasingly dependent on the timing, cost and scale of new and transitioning supply.
In this environment, headline issuance volumes remain important - but on their own they are no longer sufficient to explain how the market is likely to evolve.
Increasing weight is being placed on when supply is delivered, how quickly new issuances become accessible, and the role of higher‑cost methodologies in meeting incremental demand.
These dynamics are contributing to greater price responsiveness over time, alongside increasing convergence in prices across ACCU types as conditions tighten and buyers prioritise securing available supply.
In our latest article, we examine what the CORE Markets Q4 2025 ACCU forecast model reveals about demand, supply and price dynamics - and what these signals mean for market participants positioning across the decade ahead.
Signals and shifts: Insights from our latest ACCU forecast
