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Australian Energy & Environmental Market Update - January 2025

Australian Energy & Environmental Market Update - January 2025

The latest summary edition of our monthly Australian energy & environmental market update is now available. Keep reading for energy and carbon pricing movements, policy updates and other news.

Updated
February 12, 2025
Published
February 12, 2025
Australian Energy & Environmental Market Update - January 2025

Australian Energy & Environmental Market Update January 2025 - summary edition

This month we cover energy and environmental market movements, the Queensland government proposing stricter approval processes for wind projects, and the Green Aluminium Production Credit announced by the Albanese Labor government.

Keep reading for an overview of key market developments and a discussion of the impact of these announcements. 

A comprehensive report with additional insights, charts and commentary from our industry analysts, is available to paid subscribers. Contact our team to find out more.

Highlights for January 2025

Australian electricity and gas pricing

  • All mainland NEM regions experienced a decline in spot prices in January. Prices increased in TAS as a result of lower hydro and wind generation.
  • NSW and QLD markets experienced two episodes of high prices this month. Prices remained relatively stable in other regions.
  • The futures market remained relatively stable this month, with slight softening in all futures markets across the month. The futures markets for QLD, NSW and VIC remain backwardated, while SA futures are fairly flat.
  • This month, the gas spot market remained stable, with prices decreasing slightly compared to December's heightened volatility.

Log in to the CORE Markets platform for more data, insights and commentary. Don’t have an account? Learn more

Renewables & BESS markets

  • The NEM wide 12-month rolling average renewable energy penetration has increased by 0.5 percentile points from December 2024, equating to a 984 GWh increase in renewable dispatch from Cal23 to Cal24.
  • NEM-wide average solar DWAP decreased by over $22 /MWh again this month, with VIC being the only region with an increase.
  • Revenue per MW of solar capacity has decreased between December and January. The top 4 performing solar assets were in NSW, with their spot revenue ranging from $13k - $16k /MW.
  • Wind DWAPs have decreased on average across all mainland NEM regions again this month, while TAS experienced a significant increase, reflecting higher spot market prices in that region.
  • Whilst wind assets generally showed a drop in DWAPs this month it was cancelled out by an increase in capacity factors, leading to an overall increase in revenue per MW for the top assets.
  • NSW BESS revenue declined significantly in January, driving a NEM-wide aggregated decrease in BESS market revenue for the second consecutive month.
  • NEM-wide BESS dispatch volume increased marginally from December to January, supported by strong price signals in all states except NSW and several assets progressing through commissioning.

Log in to the CORE Markets platform for more data, insights and commentary. Don’t have an account? Learn more

Carbon and environmental markets

  • ACCU Market continued to see elevated trading volumes and a softening of prices throughout the month of January. Spot generic prices peaked at over $42 in November, but are traded as low as $34.10 in January.
  • LGC price volatility increased as entities engage more heavily in the spot market ahead of the March surrender deadline and as option contracts expire.
  • Following the typical EOY uptick in STC submissions, January saw low submission volumes as the market remained at the clearing house cap price, a small price level increase was noted for later-dated months as well.
  • ESCs continued to trade in a tight band as had been the case in December. The spot pricing ended the month just $0.25 lower than where it started, closing at $14.25/certificate.
  • After the release of the Victorian Energy Upgrades 2026-27 Targets Regulatory Impact Statement last month, liquidity has markedly increased, the forward curve now flat at an increased level of $112/certificate.
  • Low PRC issuance figures across January and recent months have seen pricing increase in both the spot and forwards as demand has remained steady, spot closed the month at $2.66/certificate.

Log in to the CORE Markets platform for more data, insights and commentary. Don’t have an account? Learn more

For a comprehensive update on the ACCU market, read our ACCU Monthly Market Report here

In other news

  • The Queensland government has proposed stricter approval processes for wind projects, mandating community consultation to align renewable energy development with broader land-use policies.
  • The Green Aluminium Production Credit was announced by the Albanese Labor government on the 20th Jan 2025, injecting $2 Billion investment into the industry to incentivize the production of green aluminium.
  • National Electricity Market news: Record demand in QLD, Quinbrook secures $722M for Supernode BESS, submissions open for the NEM review and record renewable energy penetration.

Features

Feature 1

QLD Amended Planning Rules

The Queensland government has proposed stricter approval processes for wind projects, mandating community consultation to align renewable energy development with broader land-use policies.

In mid-January, the Queensland government issued a “call-in” notice on the state development approval for the Moonlight Range Wind Farm, initiating fresh consultation on whether the project aligns with state interests. Additionally, development applications for three other wind projects—Fortescue’s Wongalee, Windlab’s Bungapan, and RWE’s Theodore wind farms—were paused.

This decision triggers a 40-day consultation period, allowing community members, local governments, and other stakeholders to submit their feedback.

According to the draft framework released in September 2024, the updated legislation aims to ensure that renewable energy projects undergo impact assessments aligned with approval processes for other land uses, such as mining. The framework outlines five key initiatives:

  • Enhancing environmental outcomes
  • Enabling effective community participation
  • Improving access to information
  • Strengthening landholder protections
  • Streamlining industry facilitation

Deputy Premier and Minister for State Development, Infrastructure, and Planning, Jarrod Bleijie, announced that from Monday, February 3, all wind farm developers will be required to consult with local councils, communities, and other stakeholders before proceeding with new projects.

The government also stated that large-scale solar farms and other renewable energy developments will be subject to similar assessments, mandating community consultation and granting third-party appeal rights.

Feature 2

Green Aluminium Production Credit

The Green Aluminium Production Credit was announced by the Albanese Labor government on the 20th Jan 2025, injecting $2 Billion investment into the industry to incentivize the production of green aluminium.

On the 20th Jan 2025, The Albanese Labor Government announced a $2 Billion investment into the Aluminium industry as part of its Future Made in Australian economic plan.1

This injection of funds aims to supercharge the local metals industry and provide incentives to produce green aluminium, securing the future of the aluminium industry in Australia.

The funding will be made available to aluminium smelters from 2028-2029.

How will the program work?

Aluminium smelters that can show decarbonisation efforts before 2036 will be able to negotiate an emissions-linked credit contract with the government per tonne of green aluminium produced for up to 10 years.2

Crediting rates will be based on individual facilities and negotiations.

How will this affect the energy market?

Aluminium smelters are responsible for ~10% of Australia’s energy demand3 and that ~80% of emissions from Australian aluminium smelters are associated with their electrical use4

Therefore, for aluminium smelters to utilise this scheme, there will likely be a further push to procure renewables on a large scale across QLD, VIC and NSW.

1Minister for Industry and Science, Joint media release: Aluminium to forge Australia's manufacturing future

2Department of Industry, Science and Resources, New Green Aluminium Production Credit will support the transition to green metals

3IEEFA, Why Aluminium smelters are a critical component in Australian decarbonisation

4DCCEEW, Australian Emissions Projections 2023

Source: https://www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-change/publications/australias-emissions-projections-2023

What this month’s developments mean for market participants

Energy market

Electricity prices moderated downwards across all mainland regions of the NEM this month, stabilising after the heightened volatility in November and December last year. Despite prices relaxing overall, multiple forecasted lack of reserve (LOR) events occurred amid record-high demand in QLD. High demand is typical for the start of the year due to  high temperatures  potentially tightening the demand-supply balance.

The CORE Markets team partners with renewable energy developers and corporate buyers to support strategic planning and effective risk management. Reach out to discuss how we can help optimise your strategy in this evolving market.

Carbon market

The carbon market saw high traded volumes this month compared to December, and a softening of prices in the ACCUs market. ACCU prices have now normalised to pre-November 2024 levels.

We’ve written about the eventful year that was in the ACCU market, and 2025 is shaping up to be another big year. Keep up-to-date with important developments as they happen in the CORE Markets analytics platform. This includes ACCU market data across major methodologies (including forward price curves), policy and regulatory updates, and daily insights from our markets team. Book a demo today.

Do you need help navigating renewable energy and carbon markets?

The events outlined in this month's update highlight the evolving nature of carbon, environmental and energy markets and the complexity of the net zero transition.

To discuss your unique requirements, get in touch with our team today to see how we can help.

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Australian Energy & Environmental Market Update - January 2025

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February 12, 2025

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